Economic Briefing - Money, Oil & Politics, Q4 2014

In his Annual Economic Briefing, Roman Scott, Chairman of The Calamander Group presented highlights on the Global economy and shared an outlook of what we can expect in 2015. Follow the link to watch the video to gain insights and plan your 2015 investments.

Highlights from the Economic Briefing

 

Global Macro: The Big Issues

  • Politics - US & EU Political paralysis improved, but Geopolitical events define the year
  • Macro - Growth replaces money as the big issue. Can the world grow again?
  • Money - The Great Tightening & Tapering Debate is over, and the doves have won
  • Oil -  The second big issue of the year. Will lower prices stay, and boost demand

 

Global Economy

  • This is going to be a tougher year to make money-the easy calls are gone for equities, and bonds are in danger territory, risks for Ems
  • World GDP tipping up in the last part of in cycle before falling down again.
  • Q on Q Recovery according to script in 2014
  • US: Unemployment has improved however spending remains conservative
  • Europe: Fiscal Drag – the German Austerity Orthodoxy works its magic…
  • China: Finally shifting to the consumer economy, people are starting to spend but, overall trend not as strong. Is China slowing? Yes.
  • For 30 years world growth has been driven by globalisation and trade, linked to the hyper growth of China
  • Employment growth, which has held back inflation, dead on target, but this is core only.
  • As the divergence between the US and others has expanded, the dollar has strengthened

 

 

Click here to download the presentation slides

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